Well, today our meteorologist friend Justin Berk told us that we have a 25% chance of landfall.
This is because the GFS model changed its mind last night, pushing the track of Joaquin 200 miles east at about 2 a.m. This is mainly because the storm didn't start surging north immediately. This is great news! We're not going to get the battering we were anticipating!
But, wait. This is a change, not a total escape from a crap weekend. The storm is currently a Category 3, which means that it doesn't get "pushed or pulled around from other weather systems as easily. It can be the bully instead." Translation: we're still going to get a ton of rain, and currently Virginia is currently under a state of emergency.
Right now, Joaquin is hanging out over the Bahamas, and will likely be stalled there for a few days before turning and starting its crawl north. If it stalls for longer, and starts its crawl later, a cold front will push it out to sea. But if it decides that it's time to get out of bed and start its day of destruction, well, hello one-in-four odds.
If you want to break up with Joaquin (and we won't blame you - that beard was atrocious), at the very least, get ready for some serious rain. Some estimates put us at a week of full rain, 6-10 inches being thrown around quite a bit. In the Bahamas, they're looking at 20 inches of rainfall with up to eight feet of storm surge in central Bahamas. Here are the Accuweather estimates for coastal impacts and rainfall.
So while we've most likely gotten out of earth-shattering winds Sunday night, don't think you can just relax. It's going to get ugly, so start thinking about how you can protect what you have. If you live in an area where they're expecting high levels of water, spend five minutes walking through your house tonight with a video camera. Get a record of your belongings in the unlikely event that you'll need an insurance claim in your future. It really isn't a bad idea to think your life is worth recording.
