For the latest on Joaquin, check out our Hurricane Central.
Meteorologists are still struggling to make sense of exactly where Joaquin will go, but a few things are for sure: the storm is strengthening.
"There was a lot of wind sheer aloft pushing the high clouds well east of the center," wrote meteorologist extraordinaire Justin Berk. "Now the sheer is decreasing, so the storm is getting more stacked vertically allowing the intensity to increase." Hurricane-force winds are extending 30 miles from Joaquin's center, with tropical-force winds reaching up to 125 miles. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft measured the eye of the storm to be 55-miles wide.
The problem with creating a single forecast model is that Joaquin's track may be influenced by a cold front near the East Coast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida, a strong bubble of high pressure over the North Atlantic, and a low pressure system hitting the South.
Currently, Joaquin is battling the Bahamas today (Wednesday) and Thursday, when it is expected to turn northward. And that's when things could become very, very scary for Bay residents.
"The latest models show a scary similarity to the track of Isabel," writes Berk, "and I don't write that lightly. This could be a big deal." Isabel is the only direct landfall hurricane to hit Maryland in over 100 years, passing over Southern Maryland and dragging the water full force up the Chesapeake. "If this curves to make landfall, it would be worse for Maryland if it passes south or overhead," says Berk. "But better for us if it hits north. Keep that in mind."
You can follow Justin Berk on Twitter. We'll be posting frequently with updates, so check back to SpinSheet often.
