At the moment, multiple forecast models are being utilized to come up with an idea for what Hurricane Joaquin is going to do over the weekend. We in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are looking at anything from a period of very heavy rain to a dangerous, long-duration flooding event with significant winds and surge. It's still too soon to call, and there is no need to panic. But our readers are boaters and sailors, and we want to make sure to bring you the most accurate news (and that includes all forecasts).
#Joaquin 2pET Advisory: #winds now up to 85 mph; still possible East Coast landfall: http://t.co/oEM95HqYFM #tropics pic.twitter.com/bY0M72CwrY
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) September 30, 2015
Again, that's worst case scenario. But that doesn't mean it's a good weekend to head to the beach. Currently Joaquin has winds measured at 80 mph sustained, and with the warm water underneath it, it's only going to strengthen. Whether or not the storm makes landfall, at least one period of very heavy rain is expected. This is due to tropical moisture meeting up with a cold front, and is referred to as a "predecessor rain event." Two to six inches are possible. Considering that the area was flooded after the one to six inches we saw last night, that's cause for concern.
The forecast for Hurricane #Joaquin is complicated. Here are 2 possible scenarios. https://t.co/eYJl1G8I6U — The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) September 30, 2015
The European Model of forecasting is a bit of a dark horse. The European model (scenario 1) sees the storm pushing out to sea due to an area of high pressure to the west, which would (again) see us getting wet (possibly six to 15 inches in western and central Virginia), but not with the threat of storm surge and tropical force winds. Scenario 2, however, brings the high pressure closer toward the west, increasing the chances of a landfall.
The European model is famously the only model that saw Hurricane Sandy turning into the New Jersey coast seven days before the storm hit. It's generally considered one of the more trusted models, and with this storm it currently disagrees with the Global Forecast System (GFS) model.
As we noted earlier, the GFS model for Joaquin is eerily similar to Hurricane Isabel's track.
At the very least, it's time to take a moment and prepare for some flooding and possible strong winds. It's Nor'Easter season regardless.
